pale blue dot -carl sagan- 第62部分

We　e　upon　Psalm　15；　which　stakes　a　divine　claim　to　other　worlds：　〃＇T＇he　heavens　are　the　Lord's；　but　the　Earth　lath　he　given　to　the　children　of　men。〃　Or　Plato's　retelling　of　the　Greek　analogue　of　Babel—the　tale　of　Otys　and　Ephialtes。　They　were　mortals　who　〃dared　to　scale　heaven。〃　The　gods　were　faced　with　a　choice。　Should　they　kill　the　upstart　humans　〃and　annihilate　＇their＇　race　with　thunderbolts〃？　On　the　one　Band；　〃this　would　be　the　end　of　the　sacrifices　and　worship　which　mien　offered〃　the　gods　and　which　gods　craved。　〃But；　on　the　other　hand；　the　gods　could　not　suffer　＇such＇　insolence　to　be　unrestrained。''

If；　in　the　long　term；　though；　we　have　no　alternative；　if　our　choice　really　is　many　worlds　or　none；　we　are　in　need　of　other　sorts　of　myths　of　encouragement。　They　exist。　Many　religions；　from　Hinduism　to　Gnostic　Christianity　to　Mormon　doctrine；　teach　that—as　impious　as　it　may　sound—it　is　the　goal　of　humans　to　bee　gods。　Or　consider　a　story　in　the　Jewish　Talmud　left　out　of　the　Book　of　Genesis。　（It　is　in　doubtful　accord　with　the　account　of　the　apple；　the　Tree　of　Knowledge；　the　Fall；　and　the　expulsion　from　Eden。）　In　the　Garden；　God　tells　Eve　and　Adam　that　He　has　intentionally　left　the　Universe　unfinished。　It　is　the　responsibility　of　humans；　over　countless　generations；　to　participate　with　God　in　a　〃glorious〃　experiment—〃　pleting　the　Creation。〃

The　burden　of　such　a　responsibility　is　heavy；　especially　on　so　weak　and　imperfect　a　species　as　ours；　one　with　so　unhappy　a　history。　Nothing　remotely　like　〃pletion〃　can　be　attempted　without　vastly　more　knowledge　than　we　have　today。　But　perhaps；　if　our　very　existence　is　at　stake；　we　will　find　ourselves　Able　to　rise　to　this　supreme　challenge。



ALTHOUGH　HE　DID　NOT　quite　use　any　of　the　arguments　of　the　preceding　chapter；　it　was　Robert　Goddard's　intuition　that　〃the　navigation　of　interplanetary　space　must　be　effected　to　ensure　the　continuance　of　the　race。〃　Konstantin　Tsiolkovsky　made　a　similar　judgment：

There　are　countless　planets；　like　many　island　Earths　。　。　。　Man　occupies　one　of　them。　But　why　could　he　not　avail　himself　of　others；　and　of　the　might　of　numberless　suns？　。　。　。　When　the　Sun　has　exhausted　its　energy；　it　would　be　logical　to　leave　it　and　look　for　another；　newly　kindled；　star　still　in　its　prime。

This　might　be　done　earlier；　he　suggested；　long　before　the　Sun　dies；　〃by　adventurous　souls　seeking　fresh　worlds　to　conquer。〃

But　as　I　rethink　this　whole　argument；　I'm　troubled。　Is　it　too　much　Buck　Rogers？　Does　it　demand　an　absurd　confidence　in　future　technology？　Does　it　ignore　my　own　admonitions　about　human　fallibility？　Surely　in　the　short　term　it's　biased　against　technologically　less…developed　nations。　Are　there　no　practical　alternatives　that　avoid　these　pitfalls？

All　our　self…inflicted　environmental　problems；　all　our　weapons　of　mass　destruction　are　products　of　science　and　technology。　So；　you　might　say；　let's　just　back　off　from　science　and　technology。　Let's　admit　that　these　tools　are　simply　too　hot　to　handle。　Let's　create　a　simpler　society；　in　which　no　matter　how　careless　or　short…sighted　we　are；　we're　incapable　of　altering　the　environment　on　a　global　or　even　on　a　regional　scale。　Let's　throttle　back　to　a　minimal；　agriculturally　intensive　technology；　with　stringent　controls　on　new　knowledge。　An　authoritarian　theocracy　is　a　tried…and…true　way　to　enforce　the　controls。

Such　a　world　culture　is　unstable；　though；　in　the　long　run　if　not　the　short—because　of　the　speed　of　technological　advance。　Human　propensities　for　self…betterment；　envy；　and　petition　will　always　be　throbbing　subsurface；　opportunities　for　short…term；　local　advantage　will　sooner　or　later　be　seized。　Unless　there　are　severe　constraints　on　thought　and　action；　in　a　flash　we'll　be　back　to　where　we　are　today。　So　controlled　a　society　must　grant　great　powers　to　the　elite　that　does　the　controlling；　inviting　flagrant　abuse　and　eventual　rebellion。　It's　very　hard—once　we've　seen　the　riches；　conveniences；　and　lifesaving　medicines　that　technology　offers—to　squelch　human　inventiveness　and　acquisitiveness。　And　while　such　a　devolution　of　the　global　civilization；　were　it　possible；　might　conceivably　address　the　problem　of　self…inflicted　technological　catastrophe；　it　would　also　leave　us　defenseless　against　eventual　asteroidal　and　etary　impacts。

Or　you　might　imagine　throttling　back　much　further；　back　to　hunter…gatherer　society；　where　we　live　off　the　natural　products　of　the　land　and　abandon　even　agriculture。　Javelin；　digging　stick；　bow；　arrow；　and　fire　would　then　be　technology　enough。　But　the　Earth　could　support　at　the　very　most　a　few　tens　of　millions　of　hunter…gatherers。　How　could　we　get　down　to　such　low　population　levels　without　instigating　the　very　catastrophes　we　are　trying　to　avoid？　Besides；　we　hardly　know　how　to　live　the　hunter…gatherer　life　anymore：　We've　forgotten　their　cultures；　their　skills；　their　tool…kits。　We've　killed　off　almost　all　of　them；　and　we've　destroyed　much　of　the　environment　that　sustained　them。　Except　for　a　tiny　remnant　of　us；　we　might　not　be　able；　even　if　we　gave　it　high　priority；　to　go　back。　And　again；　even　if　we　could　return；　we　would　be　helpless　before　the　impact　catastrophe　that　inexorably　will　e。

The　alternatives　seem　worse　than　cruel：　They　are　ineffective。　Many　of　the　dangers　we　face　indeed　arise　from　science　and　technology—but；　more　fundamentally；　because　we　leave　bee　powerful　without　being　mensurately　wise。　The　world…altering　powers　that　technology　has　delivered　into　our　hands　now　require　a　degree　of　consideration　and　foresight　that　has　never　before　been　asked　of　us。

Science　cuts　two　ways；　of　course；　its　products　can　be　used　for　both　good　and　evil。　But　there's　no　turning　back　from　science。　The　early　warnings　about　technological　dangers　also　e　from　science。　The　solutions　may　well　require　more　of　us　than　just　a　technological　fix。　Many　will　have　to　bee　scientifically　literate。　We　may　have　to　change　institutions　and　behavior。　But　our　problems；　whatever　their　origin；　cannot　be　solved　apart　from　science。　The　technologies　that　threaten　us　and　the　circumvention　of　those　threats　both　issue　from　the　same　font。　They　are　racing　neck　and　neck。

In　contrast；　with　human　societies　on　several　worlds；　our　prospects　would　be　far　more　favorable。　Our　portfolio　would　be　diversified。　Our　eggs　would　be；　almost　literally；　in　many　baskets。　Each　society　would　tend　to　be　proud　of　the　virtues　of　its　world；　its　planetary　engineering；　its　social　conventions；　its　hereditary　predispositions。　Necessarily；　cultural　differences　would　be　cherished　and　exaggerated。　This　diversity　would　serve　as　a　tool　of　survival。

When　the　off　Earth　settlements　are　better　able　to　fend　for　themselves；　they　will　have　every　reason　to　encourage　technological　advance；　openness　of　spirit；　and　adventure—even　if　those　left　on　Earth　are　obliged　to　prize　caution；　fear　new　knowledge；　and　institute　Draconian　social　controls。　After　the　first　few　self…sustaining　munities　are　established　on　other　worlds；　the　Earthlings　might　also　be　able　to　relax　their　strictures　and　lighten　up。　The　humans　in　space　would　provide　those　on　Earth　with　real　protection　against　rare　but　catastrophic　collisions　by　asteroids　or　ets　on　rogue　trajectories。　Of　course；　for　this　very　reason；　humans　in　space　would　hold　the　upper　hand　in　any　serious　dispute　with　those　on　Earth。

The　prospects　of　such　a　time　contrast　provocatively　with　forecasts　that　the　progress　of　science　and　technology　is　now　near　some　asymptotic　limit；　that　art；　literature；　and　music　are　never　to　approach；　much　less　exceed；　the　heights　our　species　has；　on　occasion；　already　touched；　and　that　political　life　on　Earth　is　about　to　settle　into　some　rock…stable　liberal　democratic　world　government；　identified；　after　Hegel；　as　〃the　end　of　history。〃　Such　an　expansion　into　space　also　contrasts　with　a　different　but　likewise　discernible　trend　in　recent　times—toward　authoritarianism；　censorship；　ethnic　hatred；　and　a　deep　suspicion　of　curiosity　and　learning。　Instead；　I　think　that；　after　some　debugging；　the　settlement　of　the　Solar　System　presages　an　open…ended　era　of　dazzling　advances　in　science　and　technology；　cultural　flowering；　and　wide…ranging　experiments；　up　there　in　the　sky；　in　government　and　social　organization。　In　more　than　one　respect；　exploring　the　Solar　System　and　homesteading　other　worlds　constitutes　the　beginning；　much　more　than　the　end；　of　history。



IT'S　IMPOSSIBLE；　for　us　humans　at　least；　to　look　into　our　future；　certainly　not　centuries　ahead。　No　one　has　ever　done　so　with　any　consistency　and　detail。　I　certainly　do　not　imagine　that　I　can。　I　have；　with　some　trepidation；　gone　as　far　as　I　have　to　this　point　in　the　book；　because　we　are　just　recognizing　the　truly　unprecedented　challenges　brought　on　by　our　technology。　These　challenges　have；　I　think；　occasional　straightforward　implications；　some　of　which　I've　tried　briefly　to　lay　out。　There　are　also　less　straightforward；　much　longer…term　implications　about　which　I'm　even　less　confident。　Nevertheless；　I'd　like　to　present　them　too　for　your　consideration：

Even　when　our　descendants　are　established　on　near…Earth　asteroids　and　Mars　and　the　moons　of　the　outer　Solar　System　and　the　Kuiper　et　Belt；　it　still　won't　be　entirely　safe。　In　the　long　run；　the　Sun　may　generate　stupendous　X…r