ar； for example； accounted for thirty…eight percent of our oil products； far more than planned； due to past disappointments in coal and gas production； which we had expected to reduce oil demand。 The coal industry will require at least five years to restore due to failures in modernization。 And gas drilling operations are currently slowed by environmental conditions。 For technical reasons it is extremely hard to operate such equipment in extreme cold weather…〃
〃So make those lazy bastards on the drilling crews work harder！〃 suggested the chief of the Moscow Party。
〃It is not the workers； rade。〃 Sergetov sighed。 〃It is the machines。 Cold temperature affects metal more than men。 Tools and equipment break simply because they are brittle with cold。 Weather conditions make resupply of spare parts to the camps more difficult。 Marxism…Leninism cannot dictate the weather。〃
〃How difficult would it be to conceal the drilling operations？〃 Defense asked。
Sergetov was surprised。 〃Difficult？ No； rade Minister； impossible。 How can one conceal several hundred drilling rigs； each twenty to forty meters high？ One might as easily attempt to conceal Plesetsk's missile launch plexes。〃 Sergetov noticed for the first time the glances being exchanged by Defense and the General Secretary。
〃Then we must reduce the consumption of oil by the electrical industry；〃 the General Secretary pronounced。
〃rades； allow me to give you some rough figures on the way in which we consume our oil products。 Please understand that I am going from memory； since the annual departmental report is in the process of formulation at this time。
〃Last year we produced 589 million tons of crude oil。 This fell short of planned production by thirty…two million tons； and the amount actually produced was only possible due to the artificial measures that I have already discussed。 Roughly half of that production was semirefined into mazut； or heavy fuel oil； for use in electrical power plants； factory boilers； and the like。 Most of this oil simply cannot be used otherwise； since we have only three…excuse me； now only two…refineries with the sophisticated catalytic cracking chambers needed to refine heavy oil into light distillate products。
〃The fuels we produce serve our economy in many ways。 As we have already seen； thirty…eight percent goes for electrical and other forms of power generation； and fortunately much of this is mazut。 Of the lighter fuels … diesel； gasoline； and kerosene… agricultural production and the food industries； transportation of goods and modities； public consumption and passenger transportation； and finally military uses； these alone absorbed more than half of last year's production。 In other words； rades； with the loss of the Nizhnevartovsk field the end users I just mentioned account for more than we are able to produce； leaving nothing at all for metallurgy； heavy machinery； chemical； and construction uses； not to mention what we customarily export to our fraternal socialist allies in Eastern Europe and throughout the world。
〃To answer your specific question； rade General Secretary； we can make perhaps a modest reduction in the use of light oils in electrical power usage； but even now we have a serious shortfall in electric power production； resulting in occasional brownouts and plete power outages。 Further cuts in power generation will adversely affect such crucial State activities as factory production and rail transport。 You will recall that three years ago we experimented with altering the voltage of generated power to conserve fuels； and this resulted in damage to electric motors throughout the Donets industrial basin。〃
〃What about coal and gas？〃
〃rade General Secretary； coal production is already sixteen percent below planned output； and getting worse； which has caused conversion of many coal…fired boilers and power plants to oil。 Moreover； the conversion of such facilities from oil back to coal is costly and time consuming。 Conversion to gas is a much more attractive and cheaper alternative that we have been vigorously pursuing。 Gas production is also under…plan； but it is improving。 We had expected to exceed planned targets later this year。 Here we must also account for the fact that much of our gas goes to Western Europe。 It is from this that we gain Western currency with which to purchase foreign oil； and； of course； foreign grain。〃
The Politburo member in charge of agriculture winced at this reference。 How many men； Sergetov wondered； had been done in by their inability to make the Soviet agricultural industry perform？ Not the current General Secretary； of course； who had somehow managed to advance despite his failures there。 But good Marxists weren't supposed to believe in miracles。 His elevation to the titular chairmanship had had its own price； one which Sergetov was only beginning to understand。
〃So； what is your solution； Mikhail Eduardovich？〃 the Defense Minister inquired with unsettling solicitude。
〃rades； we must bear this burden as best we can； improving efficiency at every level of our economy。〃 Sergetov didn't bother talking about increasing imports of oil。 The shortfall he had explained would result in more than a thirtyfold increase in imports； and hard currency reserves would scarcely allow a doubling of foreign oil purchases。 〃We will need to increase production and quality control at the Barricade drilling rig factory in Volgograd； and to purchase more drilling equipment from the West so that we can expand exploration and exploitation of known fields。 And we need to expand our construction of nuclear reactor plants。 To conserve what production we do have； we can restrict supplies available to trucks and personal automobilesthere is much waste in this sector； as we all know； perhaps as much as a third of total usage。 We can temporarily reduce the amount of fuel consumed by the military； and perhaps also divert some heavy machine production from military hardware to necessary industrial areas。 We face three very hard years…but only three；〃 Sergetov summarized on an upbeat note。
〃rade； your experience in foreign and defense areas is slim； no？〃 the Defense Minister asked。
〃I have never pretended otherwise； rade Minister；〃 Sergetov answered warily。
〃Then I will tell you why this situation is unacceptable。 If we do what you suggest； the West will learn of our crisis。 Increased purchases of oil production equipment and unconcealable signs of activity at Nizhnevartovsk will demonstrate to them all too clearly what is happening here。 That will make us vulnerable in their eyes。 Such vulnerability will be exploited。 And； at the same time〃…he pounded his fist on the heavy oak table… 〃you propose reducing the fuel available to the forces who defend us against the West！〃
〃rade Defense Minister； I am an engineer； not a soldier。 You asked me for a technical evaluation； and I gave it。〃 Sergetov kept his voice reasonable。 〃This situation is very serious； but it does not； for example； affect our Strategic Rocket Forces。 Cannot they alone shield us against the Imperialists during our recovery period？〃 Why else had they been built？ Sergetov asked himself All that money sunk into unproductive holes。 Wasn't it enough to be able to kill the West ten times over？ Why twenty times？ And now this wasn't enough？
〃And it has not occurred to you that the West will not allow us to purchase what we need？〃 the Party theoretician asked。
〃When have the capitalists refused to sell us…〃
〃When have the capitalists had such a weapon to use against us？〃 the General Secretary observed。 〃For the first time； the West has the ability to strangle us in a single year。 What if now they also prevent our purchase of grain？〃
Sergetov hadn't considered that。 With yet another disappointing grain harvest； the seventh out of the last eleven years； the Soviet Union needed to make massive purchases of wheat。 And this year America and Canada were the only reliable sources。 Bad weather in the Southern Hemisphere had damaged Argentina's harvest； and to a lesser extent Australia's； while the U。S。 and Canada had enjoyed their customary record crops。 Negotiations were even now under way in Washington and Ottawa to secure such a purchase； and the Americans were making no trouble at all； except that the high value of the dollar made their grain disproportionately expensive。 But that grain would take months to ship。 How easy would it be； Sergetov wondered； for 〃technical difficulties〃 in the grain ports of New Orleans and Baltimore to slow or even stop shipments entirely at a crucial moment？
He looked around the table。 Twenty…two men； of whom only thirteen really decided matters…and one of those was missing…were silently contemplating the prospect of over two hundred fifty million Soviet workers and peasants； all hungry and in the dark； at the same time that the troops of the Red Army； the Ministry of the Interior； and the KGB found their own fuel supplies…and because of it； their training and mobility…restricted。
The men of the Politburo were among the most powerful in the world； far more so than any of their Western counterparts。 They answered to no one； not the Central mittee of the munist Party； not the Supreme Soviet； certainly not the people of their nation。 These men had not walke