nion。
A back…page article in Pravda； the official munist Party newspaper noted the fire； menting that the 〃heroic fire brigade〃 had saved countless lives by its skill and devotion to duty； also preventing more serious damage to the nearby oil facilities。
The fire was reportedly begun by a 〃technical malfunction〃 in the automatic refinery control systems and spread rapidly； but was swiftly extinguished； 〃not without casualties among the brave men detailed to attack the fire； and the courageous workmen who raced heroically to their rades' side。〃
Though somewhat at odds with Western reports； the fire in the area did go out more quickly than had been expected。 Western officials are now speculating about a highly sophisticated firefighting system built into the Nizhnevartovs facility that allowed the Soviets to extinguish the fire。
AB…BA…2…3 16： 01 EST…FL…
**END OF STORY**
3 … Correlation of Forces
MOSCOW； R。S。F。S。R。
〃They didn't ask me；〃 explained Chief of the General Staff Marshal Shavyrin。 〃They didn't ask for my evaluation。 The political decision was already made when they called me in Thursday night。 When was the last time the Defense Minister asked me for a substantive judgmental decision？〃
〃And what did you say？〃 asked Marshal Rozhkov； mander…in…Chief of Ground Forces。 The initial response was a grim； ironic smile。
〃That the armed forces of the Soviet Union were able to carry out this task； given four months of preparation。〃
〃Four months 。 。 。〃 Rozhkov stared out the window。 He turned back。 〃We won't be ready。〃
〃Hostilities will mence on 15 June；〃 Shavyrin replied。 〃We must be ready； Yuri。 And what choice did I have？ Would you have had me say； 'I am sorry； rade General Secretary； but the Soviet Army is unable to carry out this task'？ I would have been dismissed and replaced by someone more tractable…you know who my replacement will be。 Would you rather answer to Marshal Bukharin…〃
〃That fool！〃 Rozhkov growled。 It had been the then…Lieutenant General Bukharin whose brilliant plan had led the Soviet Army into Afghanistan。 Professionally a nonentity； his political connections had not only saved him； but continued his career to near the pinnacle of uniformed power。 A clever man； Bukharin。 Never involved in the mountain campaigns himself； he could point to his brilliant paper plan and plain that it had been poorly executed； after he had moved on to mand of the Kiev Military District； historically the shining gate of marshal's rank。
〃So； would you have him in this office； dictating your plans to you？〃 Shavyrin asked。 Rozhkov shook his head。 The two men had been friends and rades since each had manded a tank troop in the same regiment； just in time for the final surge toward Vienna in 1945。
〃How are we to go about it？〃 Rozhkov asked。
〃Red Storm；〃 the Marshal replied simply。 Red Storm was the plan for a mechanized attack into West Germany and the Low Countries。 Constantly updated for changes in the force structures of both sides； it called for a two…to three…week campaign mencing after a rapid escalation of tension between East and West。 Despite this； in accordance with standard Soviet strategic doctrine； it called for strategic surprise as a precondition for success； and the use of conventional weapons only。
〃At least they aren't talking about atomic arms。〃 Rozhkov grunted。 Other plans with other names applied to different scenarios； including many for the use of tactical and even strategic nuclear arms； something no one in uniform wished to contemplate。 Despite all the saber…rattling of their political masters； these professional soldiers knew all too well that the use of nuclear arms made only for ghastly uncertainties。 〃And the maskirovka？〃
〃In two parts。 The first is purely political； to work against the United States。 The second part； immediately before the war begins； is from KGB。 You know it； from KGB Group Nord。 We reviewed it two years ago。〃
Rozhkov grunted。 Group Nord was an ad hoc mittee of KGB department chiefs； first assembled by then…chief of the KGB Yuri Andropov in the mid…1970s。 Its purpose was to research means of splitting the NATO alliance； and in general to conduct political and psychological operations aimed at undermining Western will。 Its specific plan to shake the NATO military and political structure in preparation for a shooting war was Nord's proudest example of legerdemain。 But would it work？
The two senior officers shared an ironic look。 Like most professional soldiers； they distrusted spies and all their plans。
〃Four months；〃 Rozhkov repeated。 〃We have much to do。 And if this KGB magic fails to work？〃
〃It is a good plan。 It need only deceive the West for a week； though two weeks would be better。 The key； of course； is how quickly NATO can reach full readiness。 If we can delay the mobilization process seven days； victory is assured…〃
〃And if not？〃 Rozhkov asked sharply； knowing that even a seven…day delay was no guarantee。
〃Then it is not assured； but the balance of forces is on our side。 You know that； Yuri。〃 The option of recalling the mobilized forces had never been discussed with the Chief of the General Staff。
〃We will need to improve discipline throughout the force first of all；〃 CINC…Ground said。 〃And I need to inform our senior manders at once。 We need to implement intense training operations。 Just how awful is this fuel problem？〃
Shavyrin handed his subordinate the notes。 〃It could be worse。 We have enough for extended unit training。 Your task is no easy one； Yuri； but four months is a long time for this task； is it not？〃
It wasn't； but there was no point in saying so。 〃As you say； four months to instill fighting discipline。 I will have a free hand？〃
〃Within limits。〃
〃It is one thing to make a private soldier snap to the orders of his sergeant。 It might be another for officers conditioned to pushing paper to change into bat leaders。〃 Rozhkov skirted the issue； but his superior received the message clearly enough。
〃A free hand on both； Yuri。 But act carefully； for both our sakes。〃
Rozhkov nodded briefly。 He knew whom he'd use to get this done。 〃With the troops we led forty years ago； Andrey； we could do this。〃 Rozhkov sat down。 〃And in truth we have the same raw material now that we had then…and better weapons。 The chief unknown remains the men。 When we drove our tanks into Vienna； our men were tough； hard veterans…〃
〃And so were the SS bastards we crushed。〃 Shavyrin smiled； remembering。 〃Keep in mind that the same forces are at work in the West； even more so。 How well will they fight； surprised； divided？ It can work。 We must make it work。〃
〃I'm meeting with our field manders Monday。 I will tell them myself 〃
NORFOLK； VIRGINIA
〃I hope you take good care of it；〃 the Mayor said。
It was a moment before mander Daniel X。 McCafferty reacted。 USS Chicago had been in mission for only six weeks； her pletion delayed by a yard fire and her missioning ceremony marred by the absence of the Mayor of Chicago due to a strike of city workers。 Just back from five tough weeks of workups in the Atlantic； his crew was now loading provisions for their first operational deployment。 McCafferty was still entranced with his new mand； and never tired of looking at her。 He'd just walked with the Mayor along the curved upper deck； the first part of any submarine tour； even though there was almost nothing to be seen there。 〃Excuse me？〃
〃Take good care of our ship；〃 said the Mayor of Chicago。
〃We call them boats； sir； and we'll take good care of her for you。 Will you join us in the wardroom？〃
〃More ladders。〃 The Mayor pretended to grimace； but McCafferty knew him to be a former fire chief。 Would have been useful a few months back； the captain thought。 〃Where are you heading tomorrow？〃
〃To sea； sir。〃 The captain started down the ladder。 The Mayor of Chicago followed him。
〃I figured that。〃 For a man in his late fifties； he handled the steel ladder easily enough。 They met again at the bottom。 〃What exactly do you do in these things？〃
〃Sir； the Navy calls it 'Oceanographic Research。' 〃 McCafferty led him forward； turning for a smile with his answer to the awkward question。 Things were starting quickly for Chicago。 The Navy wanted to see just how effective her new quieting systems were。 Everything looked good in the acoustical test range off the Bahamas。 Now they wanted to see how well things worked in the Barents Sea。
The Mayor laughed at that one。 〃Oh； I suppose you'll be counting the whales for Greenpeace！〃
〃Well； I can say that there are whales where we're heading。〃
〃What's with the tile on your deck？ I never heard of rubber decks on a ship。〃
〃It's called anechoic tile； sir。 The rubber absorbs sound waves。 It makes us quieter to operate； and makes it harder to detect us on sonar if somebody pings at us。 Coffee？〃
〃You'd think that on a day like this…〃
The captain chuckled。 〃Me； too。 But it's against regulations。〃
The Mayor hoisted his cup and clicked against McCafferty's。 〃Luck。〃
〃I'll drink to that。〃
MOSCOW； R。S。F。S。R。
They met at the Main Officers Club of the Moscow Military District on Ulitsa Krasnokazarmennaya； a massively impressive building dating back to Czarist times。 It was the normal time of year for senior field manders to confer in Moscow； and such events were always