st of the Atlantic Ocean。＇
The greater the individual weakness of each of the contracting parties； the greater are the chances of the duration of the contract； for their safety is then dependent upon their union。 When； in 1790； the most populous of the American republics did not contain 500；000 inhabitants； *g each of them felt its own insignificance as an independent people； and this feeling rendered compliance with the federal authority more easy。 But when one of the confederate States reckons； like the State of New York； 2；000；000 of inhabitants； and covers an extent of territory equal in surface to a quarter of France； *h it feels its own strength； and although it may continue to support the Union as advantageous to its prosperity； it no longer regards that body as necessary to its existence； and as it continues to belong to the federal compact； it soon aims at preponderance in the federal assemblies。 The probable unanimity of the States is diminished as their number increases。 At present the interests of the different parts of the Union are not at variance； but who is able to foresee the multifarious changes of the future； in a country in which towns are founded from day to day； and States almost from year to year？
＇Footnote g： Pennsylvania contained 431；373 inhabitants in 1790 ＇and 5；258；014 in 1890。＇＇
＇Footnote h： The area of the State of New York is 49；170 square miles。 ＇See U。 S。 census report of 1890。＇＇
Since the first settlement of the British colonies； the number of inhabitants has about doubled every twenty…two years。 I perceive no causes which are likely to check this progressive increase of the Anglo…American population for the next hundred years； and before that space of time has elapsed； I believe that the territories and dependencies of the United States will be covered by more than 100；000；000 of inhabitants； and divided into forty States。 *i I admit that these 100；000；000 of men have no ho hostile interests。 I suppose； on the contrary； that they are all equally interested in the maintenance of the Union； but I am still of opinion that where there are 100；000；000 of men； and forty distinct nations； unequally strong； the continuance of the Federal Government can only be a fortunate accident。
＇Footnote i： If the population continues to double every twenty…two years； as it has done for the last two hundred years； the number of inhabitants in the United States in 1852 will be twenty millions； in 1874； forty…eight millions； and in 1896； ninety…six millions。 This may still be the case even if the lands on the western slope of the Rocky Mountains should be found to be unfit for cultivation。 The territory which is already occupied can easily contain this number of inhabitants。 One hundred millions of men disseminated over the surface of the twenty…four States； and the three dependencies； which constitute the Union； would only give 762 inhabitants to the square league； this would be far below the mean population of France； which is 1；063 to the square league； or of England； which is 1；457； and it would even be below the population of Switzerland； for that country； notwithstanding its lakes and mountains； contains 783 inhabitants to the square league。 See 〃Malte Brun；〃 vol。 vi。 p。 92。
＇The actual result has fallen somewhat short of these calculations； in spite of the vast territorial acquisitions of the United States： but in 1899 the population is probably about eighty… seven millions； including the population of the Philippines； Hawaii； and Porto Rico。＇＇
Whatever faith I may have in the perfectibility of man； until human nature is altered； and men wholly transformed； I shall refuse to believe in the duration of a government which is called upon to hold together forty different peoples； disseminated over a territory equal to one…half of Europe in extent； to avoid all rivalry； ambition； and struggles between them； and to direct their independent activity to the accomplishment of the same designs。
But the greatest peril to which the Union is exposed by its increase arises from the continual changes which take place in the position of its internal strength。 The distance from Lake Superior to the Gulf of Mexico extends from the 47th to the 30th degree of latitude； a distance of more than 1；200 miles as the bird flies。 The frontier of the United States winds along the whole of this immense line； sometimes falling within its limits； but more frequently extending far beyond it； into the waste。 It has been calculated that the whites advance every year a mean distance of seventeen miles along the whole of his vast boundary。 *j Obstacles； such as an unproductive district； a lake or an Indian nation unexpectedly encountered； are sometimes met with。 The advancing column then halts for a while； its two extremities fall back upon themselves； and as soon as they are reunited they proceed onwards。 This gradual and continuous progress of the European race towards the Rocky Mountains has the solemnity of a providential event； it is like a deluge of men rising unabatedly； and daily driven onwards by the hand of God。
＇Footnote j： See Legislative Documents； 20th Congress； No。 117； p。 105。＇
Within this first line of conquering settlers towns are built； and vast States founded。 In 1790 there were only a few thousand pioneers sprinkled along the valleys of the Mississippi； and at the present day these valleys contain as many inhabitants as were to be found in the whole Union in 1790。 Their population amounts to nearly 4；000；000。 *k The city of Washington was founded in 1800； in the very centre of the Union； but such are the changes which have taken place； that it now stands at one of the extremities； and the delegates of the most remote Western States are already obliged to perform a journey as long as that from Vienna to Paris。 *l
＇Footnote k： 3；672；317 … Census of 1830。＇
＇Footnote l： The distance from Jefferson； the capital of the State of Missouri； to Washington is 1；019 miles。 （〃American Almanac；〃 1831； p。 48。）＇
All the States are borne onwards at the same time in the path of fortune； but of course they do not all increase and prosper in the same proportion。 To the North of the Union the detached branches of the Alleghany chain； which extend as far as the Atlantic Ocean； form spacious roads and ports； which are constantly accessible to vessels of the greatest burden。 But from the Potomac to the mouth of the Mississippi the coast is sandy and flat。 In this part of the Union the mouths of almost all the rivers are obstructed； and the few harbors which exist amongst these lagoons afford much shallower water to vessels； and much fewer commercial advantages than those of the North。
This first natural cause of inferiority is united to another cause proceeding from the laws。 We have already seen that slavery； which is abolished in the North； still exists in the South； and I have pointed out its fatal consequences upon the prosperity of the planter himself。
The North is therefore superior to the South both in commerce *m and manufacture； the natural consequence of which is the more rapid increase of population and of wealth within its borders。 The States situate upon the shores of the Atlantic Ocean are already half…peopled。 Most of the land is held by an owner； and these districts cannot therefore receive so many emigrants as the Western States； where a boundless field is still open to their exertions。 The valley of the Mississippi is far more fertile than the coast of the Atlantic Ocean。 This reason； added to all the others； contributes to drive the Europeans westward … a fact which may be rigorously demonstrated by figures。 It is found that the sum total of the population of all the United States has about tripled in the course of forty years。 But in the recent States adjacent to the Mississippi； the population has increased thirty…one…fold； within the same space of time。 *n
＇Footnote m： The following statements will suffice to show the difference which exists between the commerce of the South and that of the North： …
In 1829 the tonnage of all the merchant vessels belonging to Virginia； the two Carolinas； and Georgia （the four great Southern States）； amounted to only 5；243 tons。 In the same year the tonnage of the vessels of the State of Massachusetts alone amounted to 17；322 tons。 （See Legislative Documents； 21st Congress； 2d session； No。 140； p。 244。） Thus the State of Massachusetts had three times as much shipping as the four above…mentioned States。 Nevertheless the area of the State of Massachusetts is only 7；335 square miles； and its population amounts to 610；014 inhabitants ＇2；238；943 in 1890＇； whilst the area of the four other States I have quoted is 210；000 square miles； and their population 3；047；767。 Thus the area of the State of Massachusetts forms only one…thirtieth part of the area of the four States； and its population is five times smaller than theirs。 （See 〃Darby's View of the United States。〃） Slavery is prejudicial to the commercial prosperity of the South in several different ways； by diminishing the spirit of enterprise amongst the whites； and by preventing them from meeting with as numerous a class of sailors as they require。 Sailors are usually taken